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03/17/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When watching the NCAA Tournament, I'm not holding my breath waiting for Cinderella to appear like most of America.
Nope, I'm all about the next level and trying to project which players have the athletic skills and basketball smarts to flourish in the NBA, and which ones are the frauds, manufactured in the Dick Vitale/Jay Bilas ESPN-generated hype-machine (think J.J. Redick).
If you are looking for talent, it's usually a good idea to find John Calipari, the coach that mentored both Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans at Memphis for a season before they burst onto the NBA scene.
Calipari may have fled Beale Street for the blue grass of Kentucky but he remains the best recruiter in all of college basketball, and his new one-year wonder is point guard John Wall, who figures to be the No. 1 overall selection in June's draft.
The 6-foot-4 Wall has the size and physical skills to become an elite player early in his NBA career. His speed and athleticism are strikingly similar to Rose, and few guards can finish above the rim like Wall. One scout told me Wall has an Allen Iverson-like extra gear, with five more inches of height.
Kentucky power forward Patrick Patterson, a junior, may also be a lottery pick. At 6-foot-8 and 240 pounds, Patterson already possesses an NBA-body and has the demeanor you want in a post player, a rare thing in today's college game. Patterson actually enjoys contact and seeks to bang inside, like a far more skilled Charles Oakley.
Georgia Tech doesn't bring the same cachet to the dance as UK but they sure bring talent and like the Wildcats figure to have two NBA Lottery players in forwards Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal.
Favors, a freshman, is a sure-fire top five pick and will remind you a lot of Al Horford. Like the Atlanta big man, Favors is only 6-foot-9 but is an explosive leaper with that rare combination of power and quickness that can give even the best fits on a daily basis. Favors also possesses a 7-footer's wingspan, and figures to turn into a top-tier shot-blocker early in his NBA career. Like most young players, Favors lacks a go-to move on the blocks and relies too much on his athleticism, but that's the nature of the beast these days.
Lawal is a junior with a relentless work ethic. He also has the 7-foot wingspan along with an NBA-body and solid athletic skills, but Lawal will beat you with conditioning. Like a big-time NFL defensive end, the Georgia native has a non-stop motor and runs the floor extremely hard on a consistent basis.
Kansas is a No. 1 seed for a reason and could have three first round selections is this year's draft. Freshman shooting guard Xavier Henry has the biggest upside and could be gone in the top 10. At 6-foot-6 and 220 pounds, unlike most freshmen, Henry is physically ready. He's a naturally gifted scorer that gets his shot effortlessly but lacks the foot speed to be a true superstar.
Junior Cole Aldrich is the premiere center in the country and is as fundamentally sound a player as you will find in college. He may not have the athletic skills that wow NBA scouts but he's improved every year and could certainly be a late lottery pick.
Meanwhile, senior point guard Sherron Collins figures to be a late first-round selection. Collins is only 5-foot-11 and thinks shot first, but as a 15- or 20- minutes-a-night backup, he has value. In fact, if Collins proves he can keep people in front of him defensively, he could be a nice little role player on a championship-level club.
Right behind Wall in most mock drafts is Ohio State superstar Evan Turner, a 6-foot-7 combo guard that is silky smooth with a great feel for the game. Offensively, Turner reminds me a lot of Portland Trail Blazers star Brandon Roy. He's not the freakish athlete that Wall is, but has the length to give people fits on the wing.
Syracuse junior forward Wesley Johnson rounds out the top three as far as NBA projections go. The prototypical athletic small forward, Johnson actually has a monster mid-range game, something that is usually lost in the three-point- driven college game.
If you are looking for role players that could be steals in the second round, I like Washington forward Quincy Pondexter, Maryland guard Greivis Vasquez and Notre Dame big man Luke Harangody.
Pondexter is slight but he seems to understand the game and has a feel for his own strength and weaknesses, an underrated trait. Few players have the basketball IQ to stay away from things that hurt them.
At 6-foot-6, you have to like Vasquez's size and he plays with great intensity. Of course, that same intensity means Vasquez will play out of control at times, and his decision making suffers. If a coach can harness that, he might have something in the Maryland senior.
Harangody is 6-foot-7, 245-pound plodding power forward. He lacks athleticism, explosiveness and height but dominated the toughest conference in all of college basketball for three years. In short, Harangody knows how to play the game, and there will always be room for a guy like that.
<< Van Bommel inks Bayern extension
Munich, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bayern Munich captain Mark van Bommel has
agreed to a contract extension that will keep him at the club through the end
of next season.
Van Bommel's contract was set to expire at the end of the curren
<< Diamondbacks sign P Benson to minor league deal
Tucson, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Arizona Diamondbacks have signed veteran
pitcher Kris Benson to a minor league contract, the team announced Wednesday.
The 35-year-old appeared in eight games (two starts) in 2009 with the Texas
Range
<< Report: Seton Hall fires hoops coach Gonzalez
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seton Hall has reportedly fired head men's
basketball coach Bobby Gonzalez.
The Star-Ledger reported that on Wednesday, the school forced out Gonzalez,
who was in his fourth season with the team. The
<< Kiessling commits future to Leverkusen
Leverkusen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bayer Leverkusen have secured the
future of Germany international Stefan Kiessling until the summer of 2015 with
a new contract.
Kiessling has been rewarded with a new long-term deal on the back
Harvick looking for another win at Bristol >>
Bristol, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Saturday,
March 20. Race: Scotts Turf Builder 300. Site: Bristol Motor Speedway. Track:
.533-mile oval. Start time: 2:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 300. Miles: 159.9. 2009
winner: Kevin Harv
Eagles cut ties with OL Andrews >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Eagles released
offensive lineman Shawn Andrews on Wednesday.
"We appreciate the efforts and contributions of Shawn while he was in
Philadelphia," said head coach Andy
Report: Rangers manager Washington tested positive for cocaine >>
Surprise, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington
reportedly tested positive for cocaine during the 2009 season.
According to a report from SI.com, Washington failed the test last July, but
has passed all his t
Portland fires VP Penn >>
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Portland Trail Blazers announced on
Wednesday that Vice President of Basketball Operations Tom Penn has been
relieved of his duties.
"We felt it was in the organization's best interest to
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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