Blockbuster Nadal-Federer Aussie semi set

Tennis Betting Lines

01/24/2012 - Melbourne, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former world No. 1 greats Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will do battle in the semifinals Thursday at the 2012 Australian Open.

The second-seeded Nadal snuck past seventh-seeded Czech Tomas Berdych in four sets, while a third-seeded Federer whipped 11th-seeded Argentine slugger Juan Martin del Potro in straights in a rematch of the 2009 U.S. Open final, which was won by the towering del Potro. Nadal beat Berdych in the 2010 Wimbledon championship match.

The 30-year-old Federer played in his 1,000th ATP-level match on Tuesday and secured a berth in his 30th Grand Slam semifinal.

"It's a lot of matches and a lot tennis," Federer said. "Either I have been around for a long time or I'm extremely fit. You decide which way you want to describe it. But I'm happy."

The 10-time major champion and reigning French Open titlist Nadal was tested mightily in a 6-7 (5-7), 7-6 (8-6), 6-4, 6-3 victory over Berdych at Rod Laver Arena, where the legendary Aussie Laver was on hand to watch on Day 9. The 16- time Grand Slam titlist Federer dismantled del Potro 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 earlier Tuesday in quarterfinal action at Laver.

Nadal needed a whopping 4 hours, 16 minutes to stave off a game Berdych, who finally succumbed on Nadal's first match point by framing one final forehand into the court, as the mighty Spaniard broke to close out the quality affair.

The fiery Nadal saved four set points in the opening stanza, including one with an incredible cross-court passing shot on the 29th point of a rally. But Berdych would win the ensuing tiebreak.

Nadal then snuck out the second-set tiebreak on his way to taking the last three sets of the match, as he simply got stronger at the bout wore one.

"Happy with how I finished match physically, I was able to keep running with high intensity," Nadal said.

Berdych fired 17 aces, but also piled up 56 unforced errors and had his serve broken five times, compared to only two breaks he tallied against the Spanish strongman, who beat the big Czech for a 10th straight time.

The four-time Aussie Open champion Federer, meanwhile, handled del Potro in just 1 hour, 59 minutes, as the super Swiss recorded 38 winners to send the Argentine home after he reached his first Grand Slam quarterfinal since the '09 U.S. Open.

"We have played some big matches against each other, so just knowing how well he's been playing as of late, I was just hoping that I would get off a good start," Federer said. "I was able to mix it up well and control the ball, and right away sort of felt confident."

Federer, who hasn't won a Grand Slam event since titling here in Melbourne two years ago, has yet to drop a set at this latest Aussie fortnight. He'll now appear in his ninth straight Aussie semi.

The 25-year-old Nadal and Federer will meet for a 27th time, with the Spaniard leading the all-time series 17-9. Nadal is 7-2 in their Grand Slam meetings, including wins in their last four matchups. The two stalwarts have met in a record eight major finals, with Nadal winning six of them. They are in the same half of the draw at a major for the first time since 2005.

Nadal topped Federer in five sets in the 2009 Aussie Open finale.

The other quarterfinals will be staged on Wednesday, as current world No. 1 Novak Djokovic will face fifth-seeded Spaniard David Ferrer and fourth-seeded Andy Murray will take on 24th-seeded Japanese Kei Nishikori.

Djokovic is 6-5 lifetime against Ferrer, who titled in Auckland two weeks ago and is already a perfect 8-0 this season.

The high-flying Djokovic beat Murray in last year's Aussie final to capture his second title here in four years. The four-time major champion is also the reigning Wimbledon and U.S. Open titlist.

Djokovic has won 36 of his last 38 Grand Slam matches and is seeking a third straight major title. A title this week would put him in select company, as only four players -- Laver, Pete Sampras, Federer and Nadal -- have captured three straight Grand Slam championships in the Open Era (since 1968).

Murray, who titled in Brisbane three weeks ago, is a three-time major runner- up, including a loss to Federer in the 2010 Aussie Open finale.

Nishikori is the first Japanese man to reach the quarterfinals at a Grand Slam event since Shuzo Matsuoka in 1995 (Wimbledon) and he's also the first Japanese man in 80 years to advance to the Aussie Open quarters, since Ryosuki Nunoi and Jiro Satoh turned the trick way back in 1932.

Djokovic, Nadal and Federer have combined to win seven of the last eight Aussie Open titles.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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