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02/14/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Blackhawks didn't look like a team ready to break out of their longest slump in four years the last time they hit the ice. Doing so against the Nashville Predators may prove difficult as well.
The Blackhawks hope to avoid a ninth setback in a row in a meeting with the division-rival Predators.
Chicago, just two seasons removed from a Stanley Cup championship, are in the midst of their first eight-game slide since an 0-6-2 stretch from Dec. 30-Jan. 11 during the 2007-08 season. Its current drought includes an 0-5-1 mark on a season-long nine-game road trip.
The Blackhawks suffered their 10th straight defeat on road ice Saturday, falling 3-0 at the Phoenix Coyotes. Mike Smith made 38 saves to shut down Chicago, which got 24 stops from Ray Emery.
A loss tonight would give Chicago its longest losing streak since dropping nine in a row from Jan. 4-26, 2007.
"We need something to give in and make us feel good about ourselves," said Chicago captain Jonathan Toews.
The Blackhawks now sit at 10-14-3 on the road and have dipped into a tie for sixth overall in the Western Conference with the Kings. Both clubs sit five points behind the Predators.
Nashville is 2-0-1 in three meetings with Chicago this season, outscoring the club 8-3 over consecutive wins. The Predators own three victories in their past four encounters at home versus the Blackhawks.
The Preds have secured points in 16 of their last 20 games, going 14-4-2 in that time, but have lost four of their past five. They suffered their third loss in a row on Saturday, falling 4-3 at Boston in a shootout.
Pekka Rinne was peppered with 41 shots through overtime and was bested twice in the shootout. Sergei Kostitsyn and Martin Erat came up empty on their attempts in the tiebreaker.
"They outshot us. Probably outplayed us, too," said Rinne, who made 38 saves. "We gave a point away.
Shea Weber, Patrick Hornqvist and Mike Fisher scored in regulation for the Preds, who saw the Bruins' Milan Lucic force overtime on a goal with 67 seconds left in the third period.
<< Red Wings aim to set new NHL home mark vs. Stars
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Red Wings will try to set a new NHL record for
the longest home winning streak in league history when they host the Dallas
Stars tonight at Joe Louis Arena.
Detroit matched a league standard with its 20th conse
<< West Virginia set to join Big 12 in July
Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - West Virginia and the Big East have agreed
to settle their lawsuits, enabling the university to leave the conference and
join the Big 12 in July.
West Virginia athletic director Oliver Luck would not d
<< Rangers, Bruins clash in Boston
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Rangers have established themselves as the top
team in the East and the Blueshirts will try to increase their conference lead
when they visit the Boston Bruins tonight at TD Garden.
With 77 points, the Rangers
<< Sens begin road trip in Tampa
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After having little success on a recent five-game
homestand, the Ottawa Senators hope to have more luck when they kick off a
road trip tonight by battling the Tampa Bay Lightning at Tampa Times Forum.
The Senators went 1-2
Nets waive Bogans; sign Andre Emmett >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Nets have waived guard
Keith Bogans, just a day after he underwent surgery that will keep him
sidelined for the remainder of the season.
Bogans had a torn deltoid ligament re
Gators take on Tide in Tuscaloosa >>
Tuscaloosa, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 14th-ranked Florida Gators seek a quick
turnaround, as they head to Coleman Coliseum for Southeastern Conference
competition with the short-handed Alabama Crimson Tide.
This game matches up an apprentice
Buckeyes set sights on Gophers in Big Ten brawl >>
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The sixth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes will
try bounce back from their poorest outing of the season as they head to
Williams Arena to take on Tubby Smith's Minnesota Golden Gophers in a Big Ten
Conference matchu
No.22 Virginia takes on Clemson in ACC affair >>
Clemson, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 22nd-ranked Virginia Cavaliers continue
their Atlantic Coast Conference road swing with a visit to the Littlejohn
Coliseum to square off with the Clemson Tigers.
This will be the 119th battle between the Ca
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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